Courtesy of Doug Short
For the past few months I’ve been posting updates on the Consumer Metrics Institute’s Daily Growth Index. See the latest update here. This is one of the most interesting data series I follow, and I recommend bookmarking the Institute’s website. Their page of frequently asked questions is an excellent introduction to the service.
With every update the Growth Index falls lower and lower. So I spent some time analyzing the data to get a better idea of what’s happening. The Growth Index is a 91-day moving average for the year-over-year net growth/contraction of the Institute’s Weighted Composite Index (see the FAQ link above for details). The chart below is an overlay of the Weighted Composite Index and its 91-day moving average. I’ve also included a 23-day moving average to show moving-average crossovers with a ratio similar to the 200-50 or 40-10 crossovers familiar to technical analysts.
The chart below models an immediate dramatic recovery in the Weighted Composite Index. As we can see, if index reversed course and made a straight line recovery to the highs of 2009 by the end of this year, the 91-day moving average would continue to fall for two more weeks and flatline until mid-September before beginning to rise.